The Hush Money Trial

Alan Dershowitz has been lambasted and ignored by some due to his support for Donald Trump, but the celebrated Harvard law professor is unmatched in his legal diagnosis of key issues – including the recent Trump hush-money trial.

The Trump case is remarkable for its history-making (in a bad way) conviction of a former US president on criminal charges, but it was also a case that for lawyers has provoked much debate, even angst, about the nature of a bootstrapped case elevating state offenses into a federal election-rigging case.

There are multiple options the Judge has, Dershowitz says on his ‘Dershow video‘.

His predictions about the likely sentence to be handed down to former President Donald Trump following his conviction on

The Dershowitz ‘verdict’ (he won’t say its a prediction, but more a likely outcome), is as follows –

Prison?

No. The Judge will recognize that sending Trump to Rikers Island will be stayed immediately and so he won’t do that.

Slap on the Wrist?

No. The Judge could say it is really a ‘bookkeeping’ case worthy of a slap on the wrist, but the Judge won’t do that.

Suspended Sentence?

Probably. The Judge will likely send a strong message regarding the case but one that will not set up the basis for reversal.

The Likely Sentence . .

The likely sentence – ‘not a prediction’ – is that the Judge will sentence Trump to a number of years in prison and suspends the sentence, not because he doesn’t deserve prison, but because of the fact he is running for the presidency.

Another, harsher possibility, is to sentence him to prison and postpone the sentence until after the election. That is unlikely, but remains a possibility. It would also be stayed or reversed.

Probation?

The Judge could impose a probationary term for, say, five years.

House arrest?

Unlikely. He could order that Trump remains ‘at home’ for his campaigning efforts, without the chance to move about the country. Unlikely.

Heavy Fine?

Probable. The Judge will impose a harsh financial penalty, including fines for violating the gag order and there may be a ‘conditional sentence’ imposed by the judge as part of the hefty financial penalty levied.

The Timing Issue

A key question is the timing of sentencing and the sentence itself, as Trump could receive whatever sentence is imposed. But if he loses the election and before the inauguration of Joe Biden (should be be compis mentis) Trump has the convictions set aside.

This could involve the Judge and prosecutor being rebuked for hearing the action and bringing it in the first place. As in the Weinstein case, the New York Court of Appeals could make such orders, quite apart from the US Supreme Court.

If that was the case Trump can argue that the election was unfair.

However the problem with the New York appeals court is that the elected Judges will not wish to face the opprobrium and potential abuse, such as Professor Dershowitz has received for defending Trump, which includes being shunned by friends in Marthas Vinyard.

Shortly, time will tell on just what Trump’s sentence will be.